NFL 2013 Regular season

[SirBlaziken]

Here, you can talk about the upcoming NFL season. Right now, all I can say is, my favorite team, Cleveland, is going to 6 wins tops.

[Lord Raven]

Ravens look ridiculous this season

Clark/Furstenburg/Dickson/Bajema on TE
McKinnie (LT)/Osemele (LG)/Gradkowski (C)/Yanda (RG)/Oher (RT) (Oher's the weakest by a longshot, and he's the only question mark here but we survived with him)
Torrey Smith X, Stokely Z, Marlon Brown Slot, Jacoby PR/KR and depth
Rice (RB), Pierce (RB), Leach (FB), Juzczyck (HB)
JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOE FLACCO

And I'm not gonna get started on our defense.  Ngata, Webb, Suggs are healthy, Dumervil/Ihedigbo or Elam/Huff are upgrades at their positions, and then we have Canty and some fresh MLB talent.  Graham will be a CB again and Jimmy Smith is okay.  Our Dline and Linebackers are great and quick and can put pressure on a team all day

Hooooly crap this season will be great

[SirBlaziken]

Probably, but you lost Lewis (retired), Reed (Texans), and others. The division is still yours, though. And the Browns once again, don't stand a chance. Oh well.

Texans take AFC south. Your thoughts?

[Lord Raven]

Ray Lewis is probably our biggest loss.  Dude was slower than he used to be but he's still one of the smartest ILB/MLBs in the history of the sport.  Ed Reed was the smartest FS but he whiffed too many tackles despite his intellect, and he always played with a broken something at all times.  Reed was not that big a loss because we drafted an SS and our CBs are revitalized (along with a generally faster set of linebackers).  Bengals can put up a strong fight, Browns may or may not be troublesome, and the Steelers are on a smooth decline due to contracts and age.

Colts have a decent shot of grabbing a wild card and the Titans have a good defense/running game with Trent Dilfer levels of play from the offense.  Historically this was a good mix in 2000...  And the Jaguars are in rebuilding mode but Gabbert was looking amazing in a preseason game earlier.  But that was preseason.  Andrew Luck also has a better offensive system to adapt to and all the rookies on his offense are no longer rookies either.  But Texans are far more balanced.  I still see them going far and messing up in the playoffs though.

[SirBlaziken]

Yes, the Texans seem to always screw up in the playoffs, like the falcons.

The Titans go around 6-10, again.

The Colts will absolutely get the wild card, the Bengals get the other. My team (The Browns), don't really stand a chance. The Steelers do not have much left, but the Bengels, may beat you one game, not both.

Well, we all know who gets AFC West.

AFC East, Pats, although, they are starting to age.

[Lord Raven]

Yes, the Texans seem to always screw up in the playoffs, like the falcons.

Nope their secondary last year was just abysmal against New England.  NE's Oline is too good and Texans D-line can't break past it in time for Brady to find a good target.  Matt Schaub is also an above average QB that is more or less a serviceable starter.  But this team currently doesn't feel a force; it kinda feels like 2012 where they don't consistently play incredibly well.  We will see how they turn out.

Falcons have had so much bad luck in the playoffs.  The fact they made it to the NFCCG and the fact that the defense could not hold the 9ers on top of just a bunch of general bad luck (and a much stronger conference) really shows they don't choke or whatever.  Just shows they have bad luck.

Also doesn't help they're a passing team that has bowed out to the Giants in the playoffs in 2011 (in the playoffs their pass rush is unstoppable, which is why Brady seems like he chokes in the Super Bowl but in reality he just can't do much when he's getting attacked constantly).  2008 was Ryan's rookie year where he lost to a Warner-led Cardinals team.  The same Cardinals that went to the Super Bowl the year prior, for the record.  2009 was a 9-7 year where they didn't quality for playoffs.  2010 was a 13-3 year where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions.  I'd hardly call that choking.

Part of the reason Texans blew the playoffs in the divisional round in 2011 was that Schaub wasn't playing, and instead they had to start a QB whose name I don't remember but he notoriously blew.  In 2012, they went against the Pats against who they were blown out towards the end of the regular season earlier in the year.

The Colts will absolutely get the wild card, the Bengals get the other. My team (The Browns), don't really stand a chance. The Steelers do not have much left, but the Bengels, may beat you one game, not both.

Something I almost doubt.  I don't feel Andy Dalton can be that much better than Schaub at this point in time.  Bengals in my mind are like the AFC North's Texans, where they're pretty good on defense but not particularly stacked like other teams are.  Colts could have a losing record but they may still be better than last year's team who got into the WC through magic fairy luck and prayer or something ridiculous.  They may still get WC depending on how bad the rest of the conference is

AFC East, Pats, although, they are starting to age.

Pats will dominate for the next 5 years.  They will make the Super Bowl maybe once more before Tom Brady retires and that's about it, though.  Afterwards it could be the Dolphins taking over again, or the Pats and some QB they draft in a few years with Tom Brady's level of dedication.

Can you post in a lot more detail and take time to analyze things before you start spewing out one-sentence points?  Only 2 teams make it to the Super Bowl and 4 make it to the conference championships, so that's effectively 8 teams that screw up in the playoffs.  The playoff atmosphere changes every single year, so nothing is ever set in stone.

[SirBlaziken]

Part of the reason Texans blew the playoffs in the divisional round in 2011 was that Schaub wasn't playing, and instead they had to start a QB whose name I don't remember but he notoriously blew.  In 2012, they went against the Pats against who they were blown out towards the end of the regular season earlier in the year.
Something I almost doubt.  I don't feel Andy Dalton can be that much better than Schaub at this point in time.  Bengals in my mind are like the AFC North's Texans, where they're pretty good on defense but not particularly stacked like other teams are.  Colts could have a losing record but they may still be better than last year's team who got into the WC through magic fairy luck and prayer or something ridiculous.  They may still get WC depending on how bad the rest of the conference is

Alright, first, I meant against the Ravens. My bad.

Falcons have had so much bad luck in the playoffs.  The fact they made it to the NFCCG and the fact that the defense could not hold the 9ers on top of just a bunch of general bad luck (and a much stronger conference) really shows they don't choke or whatever.  Just shows they have bad luck.

Also doesn't help they're a passing team that has bowed out to the Giants in the playoffs in 2011 (in the playoffs their pass rush is unstoppable, which is why Brady seems like he chokes in the Super Bowl but in reality he just can't do much when he's getting attacked constantly).  2008 was Ryan's rookie year where he lost to a Warner-led Cardinals team.  The same Cardinals that went to the Super Bowl the year prior, for the record.  2009 was a 9-7 year where they didn't quality for playoffs.  2010 was a 13-3 year where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champions.  I'd hardly call that choking.

Second, I know what happens in the playoffs to both teams. The Texans may get to the AFCCG, but fall to either the Pat or the Ravens. But it seems more likely that it will be like last years, Pats being slaughtered be the Ravens. Also, the Falcons always seem to have bad match-ups, I know that. However, I've seen them win tougher games in regular season, and I know you're going to say, "The post season is tougher than the regular season." and so on and so forth. I get that point, but the 49ers were a tough matchup, I give them that, and I like that the Falcons almost won that game.

Only 2 teams make it to the Super Bowl and 4 make it to the conference championships, so that's effectively 8 teams that screw up in the playoffs.  The playoff atmosphere changes every single year, so nothing is ever set in stone.

I also know that, but last season is the first playoff win with Ryan. Before that, they seemed to lose easier matchups. I also know how the tourney style works for the playoffs.

Can you post in a lot more detail and take time to analyze things before you start spewing out one-sentence points? 

I would, but no matter what, I always seem to be wrong. Hmmmm.... I wonder why?

[Lord Raven]

Alright, first, I meant against the Ravens. My bad.

I know.  Bengals are pushing to win the division and who knows what will happen from there.  Finishing second means they go against the Colts and Chargers which can be tough matchups too.  :/

Second, I know what happens in the playoffs to both teams. The Texans may get to the AFCCG, but fall to either the Pat or the Ravens. But it seems more likely that it will be like last years, Pats being slaughtered be the Ravens. Also, the Falcons always seem to have bad match-ups, I know that. However, I've seen them win tougher games in regular season, and I know you're going to say, "The post season is tougher than the regular season." and so on and so forth. I get that point, but the 49ers were a tough matchup, I give them that, and I like that the Falcons almost won that game.

I also know that, but last season is the first playoff win with Ryan. Before that, they seemed to lose easier matchups. I also know how the tourney style works for the playoffs.

I'm not sure how the Pats will do against the Ravens this time.  I think the power is shifting towards the Ravens in that matchup because now we have the offense to take advantage of the turnovers our defense gets against Brady.  But our cast of MLBs may not be as smart as Ray Lewis was, because I'm not sure if they could adjust formation enough to counteract whatever Brady's about to do.  The D-line could have the speed to fluster Brady again, and Webb and our secondary are much faster even though they're not Ed Reed-esque and are a little more like to be picked apart.  (I'm surprised people still feared him last year).

What tougher games did they win in the regular season?  Their 3 losses came from their division, and everyone in their division save the Falcons went 7-9.  Their schedule was not that bad.  They also went 13-3 twice in Matt Ryan and their HC's tenure, but they made it to at least the divisional round when that happened.

Ryan doesn't win these games btw.  The team does.  The fact is that their defense is that lame "Bend but don't break" type that allows points on the board but mainly goes for turnovers is an issue, and the fact that the 49ers came back from a deficit and picked apart their defense is a result of their scheme ultimately.

A good book for you to read is called "Keep Your Eye Off The Ball."  Will really open your eyes to how the game works in terms of the strategy involved and all that, and why you see weirdness like 49ers comebacks in the third quarter and things to that extent.  What makes QBs and WRs elite and all of that stuff.  It's pretty great.



At any rate the point was ultimately to think critically instead of spitting out the same lines you see in the media.  Falcons continuing to "choke" in the playoffs is dumb as anything because only 4 teams can ever have a shot at winning any sort of trophy and only 8 teams can win divisions with only 4 teams having a first-round bye.  And the fact that reaching the divisional round via first-round bye doesn't count as a playoff win or doesn't count for anything is incredibly stupid, too.

[SirBlaziken]

Ryan doesn't win these games btw.  The team does.  The fact is that their defense is that lame "Bend but don't break" type that allows points on the board but mainly goes for turnovers is an issue, and the fact that the 49ers came back from a deficit and picked apart their defense is a result of their scheme ultimately.

I know Ryan does just win the games, I meant the first playoff win with Ryan on the team. That defense style is a problem, isn't it? They have the players, but that kind of defense isn't gonna cut it. Their offense is good, with players like Jones, Gonzolez (Who is in his last season), and others, the offense seems good.

And thanks for the recommendation. I'll see if I can.

[Lord Raven]

That kind of defense *can* cut it but the other part is the way the WCO works which ultimately caused the Falcons to lose (and it almost got the better of the Ravens - thankfully they were so afraid of our Red Zone Defense that they passed for 3 plays straight because Gore was not going to break past our line).  They run one game plan for the first 15-20 snaps and don't deviate from it even if it's not working.  They adjust it formally after those 15-20 snaps because by then they have diagnosed the defense properly.  Which is why you see these ridiculous comebacks by the 49ers at times.

[SirBlaziken]

Oh, thanks. God, I need to find that book.

So, what are your predictions for the NFC division winners? Please, after you make the predictions, we can go into an argument a discussion about it.

[Lord Raven]

NFC South - Toss up between New Orleans and Atlanta with Tampa Bay and Carolina able to give them some trouble.  New Orleans and Atlanta have very similar offensive styles but Atlanta is less extreme than New Orleans.  Atlanta's defense is quite a bit stronger but its offense is not quite as strong (but both do have very strong offenses and average-below average defenses).  Their schedules are about the same difficulty (only differences are that Atlanta is up against Green Bay and Washington whereas New Orleans is up against Minnesota and New York) so it's a toss-up.

NFC North - Green Bay or Detroit's division.  Minnesota squeezed their way into the playoffs last year over Chicago, and Minnesota have a QB with great intellect but terrible aiming skills and other terrible qualities in general that place their QB situation in peril.  Chicago have a new coach and staff so it can take a little while to get used to them, and Cutler still gets stymied and sacked constantly.  Their defense is younger but has lost a step generally, and their HC is Marc Trestman who worked well with CFL offenses and their defense may not run as well as last year.  Detroit and Green Bay both have explosive offenses that added many, many new pieces (in the form of RBs and healthy WRs) and they are already set with what they've got.  Detroit is almost at Green Bay's offensive levels but Detroit's defense is quite a bit better right now.

NFC West - Seattle or San Francisco.  Arizona and St. Louis will give them lots of trouble, and SF never won against STL last year (tied once and lost another time).  Arizona was a powerhouse in the division until they lost Kolb, and then their QBs after Kolb combined for 3 TDs and 18 Ints the rest of the game.  In fact it was statistically shown that it was better for them to Punt than continue giving Jonathan Skelley the ball.  Now, Carson Palmer is their QB so they could make an 8-8 season if they're good, and they can give many teams trouble because their defense was absolutely ridiculous last season.  STL is the same way but not as extreme; Bradford has things to throw to (as opposed to quality receivers having no one to throw to them) and their defense is generally good.

NFC East - I don't care who wins this division and frankly they can all go screw themselves.  Maybe the Giants are okay but I hate the other teams with a passion.  I don't care to predict this and nothing I will say is about to be accurate because this is perhaps the most inconsistent division in football.

[SirBlaziken]

Once again you're right about them all. Especially the NFC east being inconsistent. There, I'd say New York or Washington.

[Lord Raven]

except Dallas and Philadelphia will always make a solid push to get into the playoffs no matter what.  Philadelphia collapsed last year early on, but now they have a new HC that is turning their offense into a really weird, unconventional and fast paced offense that maybe they could use Vick's strengths to utilize.  Vick just needs to stop fumbling.

Last year, New York/Washington/Dallas came down to the wire.  Washington went 10-6, New York 9-7, and Dallas 8-8 and they were all in the running for the playoffs up until the last game last year.  This year all three teams are not that much different than last year so I don't expect much less of a difference in controversy and the final push to the playoffs.  Add to that how Philadelphia could be really good and how unpredictable all of their intra-divisional games are (remember, it was only 3 years ago that Philly knocked New York out of the playoffs by going from 31-10 to 38-31 in 7 minutes).

[SirBlaziken]

That is true, so, it's anyone's game. I have no idea, so much for a prediction....